Bihar will prove to be the Waterloo for Owaisi?

A question ticked in my mind, Is Bihar will prove to be the Waterloo for AIMIM and its leader? owaisi

By Shaikh Nizamuddin

The decision of AIMIM leadership to expand its political presence out from the walled city of Hyderabad may be a well calculated move by its leadership which could not do the same in its own home state Telangana.

It could be at a time when the Muslim community have had its experiments consumed in the last 67 years by voting the Congress, other regional parties and in between few Muslim political outfits.

The net outcome is a complete disappointment and further marginalization of the community going by Sachhar Commission report. Added to that is the strong emerging saffron power with a leadership having nothing but hate for the community.

What has been observed in all these years is customary rhetorics by the so called secular political parties and cosmetic actions to appease the lot which in fact gave a birth to the narratives like “Muslim appeasement” and was well en-cashed by the BJP. At the end, the community remained completely marginalized and further decline is in a full swing by those at the helm now.


A total disillusionment. It happened with Dalits and other marginalized community in the country and it is happening with the Muslims. The only difference is that, whilst it comes to SCs, OBCs and other STs, it is still within the Chaturwarna fold but when it comes to Muslims, its “we all and they”. Its not appeasement when constitutional rewards are being dolled out to SC,OBC and STs but when there is something to be rewarded within the constitutional ambit, it is appeasement. This discrimination is now institutionalized and no one there to speak against this open double standard and selective discrimination against the biggest minority of the country.

It’s a massive failure. A failure of political leadership and the system to do justice with the Muslims.

It may sound like a blame game but to be reasonable, the Muslim leadership too failed to rise t the occasion and speak against the injustice meted out to the community. The Muslims too should share this failure and introspect. Unfortunately, there is no room for introspection except going with emotionalism and passing the buck.

Here we are where a systemic dilution of constitutional spirit, institutional demonizing of the community, persecution of the community through systems apparatus – all is going in open sunlight and no one is there to rise and stand to the challenge. The challenge not only for the survival of the community as a respected citizens of the Republic but a challenge to the very spirit of India and the core of an Idea of India.

Maharashtra Mantra

No wonder if a party like AIMIM with its known style and rhetoric is gunning to capture the imagination of the community in general and the younger lot of the community in particular.

It ventured in Maharashtra and have had limited success in assembly poles and  an impressive win & surprising turn around in Aurangabad at the Municipal Corporation elections. That elated the leadership further to try their luck in the cow belt where we have substantial Muslim population which is decisive to decide the fate of the Indian politics.

Bihar Factor

Coming back to Bihar. Its well known fact that BJP is looking for a majority in Rajyasabha and the opening is Bihar followed by West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh. The BJP despite massive numbers in Loksabha are retarded in the Upper House due to lack of majority. Its sole aim is to get those numbers by any means and the starting line is in Bihar. If it gets a clear win in Bihar, then there is no stopping for them in West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh. These three states will fetch enough numbers to pack Rajyasabha with saffron colour. Then after, there is no stopping for the saffron front to ruthlessly execute their agenda – the agenda of Hindutva lased with development.

One can easily see the design and that is the realization prevailed upon all the stake holders outside the saffron front. There is a complete unanimity  amongst the secular parties on this perception and hence, there are lot many actions on mergers, collation and united fight in Bihar.

The BJP on its part stitched in Dalit parties of Paswan and Manjhi and also engineered defections from RJD and JD(U) and is still doing that.

confusing the Muslims

The BJP and the secular front are determined to win the election at any cost whereas the BJP will apply all dirty tricks, go to any level including confusing the Muslims to divide their votes and the later will try to unite the secular and caste votes and avoid division of votes.

Under this tricky situation, the news that AIMIM is taking a call and will throw its hat in the ring in Bihar is little surprising. A complete anti thesis, void of reason and wisdom.


The pretext is “Injustice to Simanchal”.

Simanchal, a region, always a tough pitch for BJP with substantial Muslim population. Represented by a Muslim MP elected from Kishanganj on Congress ticket.

I don’t know whether Asaduddin Owaisi has an idea of the nitty-gritty of this region and its politics in Bihar. But surprisingly, he gets hoodwinked by a very small political player in the sate who was kicked out of JD(U) and RJD, tried to fit in to BSP design, begged for a ticket from the Congress which was refused. He has personal grudge against the sitting MP from Kishanganj and went on a campaign to demonise the MP and did everything for the MPs personal vilification.

Frustrated by failures, he succeeded in convincing the AIMIM MP to take a dip in Bihar and it is heard that, in lieu of that node, a Mayoral seat was offered  to AIMIM candidate in Kishanganj.

However, it is still surprising that how  a seasoned, matured smart politician like Asaduddin Owaisi  can be easily hoodwinked and push in to a trap by a relatively very small player and a person with no mass appeal?

Further surprising is the MPs own statements in various TV talks that he is interested in West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh but not in Bihar. Why this sudden turned around? In the recent past, a well known aalim from a well respected family did try his hands to fetch in the MP in Bihar which was politely declined by the MP. But this time, why it worked and how it worked is a phenomena.


The decision if confined to Simanchal, will mostly hurt the Congress and the MP has still cozy relationship with Sonia and other Congress leaders like Ashok Chavan. Is that going to be the end of AIMIM and Congress relationship?

polarizing the Hindu votes

The AIMIM may win couple of seats in Simanchal and may even damage the prospect of secular parties in some constituencies. But his utterances and rhetoric’s will certainly heard by the entire Bihar which will only help in polarizing the Hindu votes and that’s what the BJP want. Amit Shah should be the happiest person to see this going well asp per his strategy book.


Its not required to further spell the outcome but certainly, it will cause more damage to the AIMIM than the secular parties. The AIMIM’s trajectory will take a dip before the proper flight. Thos who differ with AIMIM’s politics but has a soft corner, those well wishers who too differ with AIMIM’s politics will backed out and the credibility of the party as a party which cares for the community will get damaged. This will certainly have the negative effect on its  venture in West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and major civic body elections in Maharashtra in the near future.


There is still time for introspection and a rethink on its decision for AIMIM leadership. By absenting from Bihar and helping for the defeat of BJP will certainly raise the credential of the party which then will stand helpful in West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh. The community is looking for a wisdom to prevail upon the AIMIM leadership.


However, as a political party and as political leader, the party and its leadership have all the rights to exhibit its political arrogance.

Shaikh Nizamuddin can be contacted on

Mob +91 9960480981


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